How To Know When To Bet Big In Blackjack

You can find Kelly Criterion calculators online. For most profitable blackjack play, the general rule is 100-times you maximum bet. That is based around a roughly 1% edge on the biggest bet. Most gamblers feel half-Kelly is more appropriate. (if you can't come close to estimating your edge, this formula says you should never play the game). If you think you have an “information edge” in this game of imperfect information, and the edge is big enough to make you think you have a 90% chance of getting the bet correct and the risk/reward is appropriate for you based on the size of your bankroll (money management being another critical part of gambling mathematics) then you make your bet. Every time a big card is dealt, the count decreases by -1. Medium cards don’t change the count. If counting cards in blackjack is done right, the count may become very large or very small at some point. If playing with a shoe, the player should wait for at least half of the shoe to be dealt.

  1. How To Bet Big In Blackjack
  2. How To Know When To Bet Big In Blackjack Winnings
  3. How To Know When To Bet Big In Blackjack Card Game

One of the most often asked questions from players about blackjack strategy, is 'how should I bet?' You've got severaloptions and I'll discuss them in this article and offer my recommendation.

Flat Bet Blackjack Strategy

This means betting the same amount all the time. Most players don't like to bet this way because they figure if the dealer wins more hands then them they'll never win any money. Also, playersfeel it's boring betting this way. They prefer the thrill of sometimes betting more in the hopes that when they do so, they will win the hand and make a nice profit.

Here are the facts on the flat betting blackjack strategy. If you bet say $5 on every hand in a standard multiple deck game the house will have an edge of 0.5% against theskilled basic strategy player. That means you will lose on average 0.5% of every wager you make. So if you bet $10 on every hand and average 80 hands per hour you will have made a total of $800worth of bets. The casino expects to earn 0.5% of the $800 or $4.00. Of course, the more likely result is that you'll win or lose much more than $4 after an hour of play. But on average you canexpect over time to lose at the rate of $4 per hour.

Let's take an example of a player flat betting $10 on every hand. It's is a conservative betting strategy that leads to a relatively low theoretical loss rate. The fluctuation in this player'sbankroll will also be low which means the likelihood he'll have a big winning or losing session is not great.

Watch 'Why You Should Never Make the Blackjack Insurance Bet with Blackjack Expert Henry Tamburin' (March 2016)

In this video blackjack expert Henry Tamburin explains why a basic strategy player should never make an insurance bet. He gives details on three different situations that a player may encounterand why he considers blackjack insurance to always be a sucker bet.

Progressive Betting Blackjack Strategy

This is where things get interesting. The Progressive betting blackjack strategy is when players vary their bets in some way from one hand to the next rather than alwaysbetting the same amount on every hand. There are all different types of betting progressions but they all have one common denominator. You either decrease or increase your next bet dependingupon whether the hand you just played won or lose.

Win progressions encourage you to increase your bet size after a winning hand. For example, you make a minimum bet of $10 and if you win, you raise your next stakes on the hand to $20.

There are all different kinds of win progressions. The most common is a 1-2-3-5 progression. This means you increase your bet by the above multiples after each winning hand butas soon as you experience a loss, you start the progression over with a 1 unit bet.

Proponents of win progressions will tell you that you'll win more money if you win 5 consecutive hands compared to the amount you lose if you lose 5 consecutive hands. Of course, what theydon't tell you is that you never know when that 5 consecutive winning hand streak will occur.

There are also betting progressions in which you increase your bet following a loss. These Martingale type betting progressions are dangerous and you should never consider using them.

There are also hybrid betting progressions, which have you increase your bets following a win, but after two or three success wins you lock up some profit and gradually regress your bets. Thecreativity of progressive bettors is never-ending.

First of all, the blackjack strategy for betting progressions does not change the 0.5% house edge one iota. There has never been a correlation between the hand just won (orlost) and your chance of winning the next hand. In other words, using the criteria of the result of one hand (W/L) to base how you bet on the next hand has no scientific validity. So bettingprogressions, in the long run, don't work in the sense that they won't improve your long-term chances of winning.

But here's what betting progressions will do. First off they increase the fluctuation in your session bankroll compared to flat betting. This means you can win more using abetting progression compared to flat betting but you can also lose more. Secondly, betting progressions will increase the amount of money you wager per hour compared to flat betting. If a $10bettor uses a 1-2-3-5 betting progression, his average bet will $20. Over an hour he will average $20 times 80 hands or $1600 worth of bets. The casino's expected win is 0.5% of $1600 or $8. Inother words, a $10 progressive bettor stands to lose twice as much per hour as a $10 flat bettor.

Here's a tip to save you some money in the long run if you insist on using a betting progression. Instead of starting your progression at $10, start at a lower amount (ie. $5). This will reduceyour average bet to $10 per hour and cut your hourly theoretical loss rate in half.

But in the long run flat betting and betting progressions don't work in the sense they won't change the house edge against you and you will lose in the long run. So what betting system works?That, my friends, is card counting.

Betting When You Have The Edge (Card Counting)

With card counting, you know when you have the edge based on the change in the composition of the decks and therefore you'll know when it's the right time to bet more. Sounlike betting progressions that are based on whether you win or lose the previous hands, card counting is based on the mix of cards that were played on previous hands. If more small valuecards were played in previous rounds, there are more big value cards left in the unplayed cards, and the edge shifts from dealer to the player. This would be the best time to bet more.

But I'm a realist. Not a whole lot of average blackjack players have the time or mental concentration during play that is required to master one of the popular point count cardcounting systems. These are readily available in blackjack books. But even though millions of blackjack books have been sold since Ed Thorp's classic book, Beat The Dealer (circa 1962) firstrevealed card counting to the masses, the number of players who can successfully win money in the long run at blackjack number in the hundreds and thousands.

So what's the answer to betting at blackjack for the average player? I asked Don Pronovost that same question about four years ago. Don is a software developer that markets blackjack trainingsoftware. He spent the better part of two years and a trillion computer simulated hands looking for the solution to this dilemma. What he developed is Speed Count.

Speed Count is unlike any conventional card counting system. It's much simpler to master and requires much less concentration when you play. And unlike progressive betting systems, Speed Countwill give you a verifiable advantage over the casino You can read about Speed Count in Frank Scoblete’s book, Golden Touch Blackjack Revolution.

Bet

Now that you know the scoop on betting at blackjack, I wish you many aces and faces the next time you play.

Henry Tamburin has been a respected casino gambling writer for the past 50 years. He is the author of theUltimate Blackjack Strategy Guide and was editor of theBlackjack Insider newsletter. You can read his latest articles on blackjack, video poker, and his personal playing experiences at https://www.888casino.com/blog/writers/henry-tamburin

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Since blackjack is the one casino game where skill truly matters, it’s important for players to test different strategies and start incorporating them into their gameplay. But before you test any of the blackjack systems out there, there’s a simple truth you must realise – every valid blackjack strategy is based on logic and maths. Therefore, the best strategy you can adopt right away would be to leave your superstitions behind, forget about your ‘winning rituals’ and trust only the numbers. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s take a look at the best tactics you can adopt to help you win at online blackjack every time you play.

Tip #1: Pick the Right Casino

When

Players often ignore this all-important step, so I decided to start precisely with it. I cannot emphasise enough how big of a factor picking a good casino site is for your future success at beating the game. And that process is not even that hard – the trick is to pick a reputable, well-known casino that features a lot of blackjack games and generous bonuses that you can use on them. Here are three stellar examples:

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But how in fact does your choice of casino impact your winning chances? Truth is that not all online casinos are safe and trustworthy. Moreover, even if you have won fair and square, some of them might refuse to pay out your winnings. By choosing a licensed and regulated casino, such as the ones we recommend, you secure yourself a fair chance at winning and, most importantly, guaranteed payouts.

Tip #2: Pick the Right Blackjack Variant

Picking the right game variant is yet another important part of an all-encompassing blackjack strategy. The most important detail about each game is undoubtedly the house edge – the lower it is, the better. Here is a comparison between the house edges of some of the most popular online blackjack games in the UK:

As you can see, the house edge of these games is already quite low (just for reference, most slot games have a house edge of 4%-6%). Still, this is the first thing you should check before trying a new blackjack game. There are, in fact, some online blackjack games that have a house edge over 1% and even over 2%. If your goal is to win and not just to have fun, then you should definitely stay clear of those.

Tip #3: Know Your Game Inside Out

Not all blackjack games are made from the same mold. In fact, there are hardly any two blackjack variations that have exactly the same rules. Therefore, applying the same basic strategy for different games simply won’t work. Every little detail about the game matters as it affects the house edge. You can learn about the specific rules of each variant from the help section of the game. Here is what information you should be looking for if you want to find the best blackjack strategy for the game you’ve chosen.

  • How much does a blackjack pay?
  • How many decks are in the shoe?
  • Can you double on any two cards or only with specific total?
  • When can you split your hand and up to how many times?
  • Are you allowed to double after splitting a hand?
  • Are you allowed to hit split aces?
  • Do you have the option to surrender and in which cases?
  • Does the dealer hit a soft seventeen?
  • Is there a 5-, 6- or a 7-card Charlie?
Know

Another particularity you should be aware of when searching for a suitable online blackjack strategy is that there are some blackjack games that bear the same name but have different rules and, consequently, different house edge. This is due to the fact that the games are provided by different software developers. For example, Classic Blackjack by Microgaming has a house edge of merely 0.13% while the game of the same name developed by NetEnt has a house edge of 0.35%. A big difference, indeed.

Tip #4: Use a Basic Blackjack Strategy Card

Hopefully, you’ve followed our tips for playing blackjack and have already chosen a specific game to play, where to play it and you’ve familiarised yourself with all its rules. Now it’s time to find a basic blackjack strategy card specific to your game of choice which will help you make the right decision in any situation.

Below, you can see an example of a strategy card that’s especially created for Playtech’s Blackjack Pro. The image clearly shows how you should play against any given dealer upcard according to the hand you’re holding. The complete strategy chart for each different blackjack variation should consist of three parts – one for hard hands, one for soft hands and one for pairs.

The easiest way to find an optimal blackjack strategy chart for the game you want to try is to generate it yourself using one of the many blackjack basic strategy calculators you can find online. Using these strategy cards is very suitable for beginners since they are extremely easy to read and at the same time they are math-based. Still, there are some things that these cards don’t cover. They don’t tell you what to do with the side bets, how much to bet and whether card counting could help you. Those are exactly the topics that we’re going to cover next.

The Perfect Blackjack Strategy for Side Bets

As we have already established in the previous paragraphs, strategy cards can be very useful when playing most blackjack games, especially for the beginners. Yet, as you may have noticed, they don’t cover any side bets whatsoever. After all, the perfect blackjack strategy is the one that takes into account all aspects of the game and this includes whether or not to place bonus bets and if yes – how much to bet.

The truth is that blackjack is a casino game with an extremely low house edge. On top of that, skilled players are able to reduce this minimal advantage even further by adopting various blackjack strategies. This is why, in the hopes to increase the house edge and, consequently, the revenues, the casinos started adding extra decks to the different blackjack variations and came up with different side bets. And while these side bets definitely add fun and variety to te game, they make players lose money, slowly but surely.

So, it’s easy to see that the best strategy for blackjack side bets is actually not to place any! Just stick to the strategy cards until you’ve gained enough experience to start testing more advanced tactics.

What About Card Counting?

How to know when to bet big in blackjack real money

When most new players hear the words ‘blackjack strategies’, they immediately think of card counting. While this strategy may still be possible in some brick-and-mortar casinos (although, in general, it’s against the house rules or at least it’s frowned upon), it is virtually unfeasible in online casinos where the deck is shuffled after each hand. The only exception to this rule is live dealer blackjack. So, if you want to try some card counting techniques while playing online, your only option is to play live blackjack games.

But what actually is card counting and can it really help you beat the casino? Card counting is a blackjack technique that helps you follow the number of high and low cards in the shoe thus giving you some insight as to what type of card might come next – a bit of knowledge that can, indeed, tip the scales in your direction. The easiest card counting system in blackjack is called Hi-Lo and works like this: for each low card (2, 3, 4, 5, 6) you see you add one point and for each high card (10, J, Q, K, A) you deduct one. The higher the count, the bigger the chances to get 10-valued cards, which are generally considered ‘good’ for the player (and bad for the dealer).

Which Is the Best Blackjack Betting System?

As we have already established, using a blackjack strategy card can help you make the right decision in any given situation, but it doesn’t answer the important question players always ask themselves ‘How much should I bet?’ As you probably already know, there are many betting systems out there, many of which claim to be a sure way to beat any online blackjack game. A huge part of those systems are progressive betting systems which are based on the idea that if you’ve lost a number of times, you’re bound to win soon. This, of course, is not true and is often referred to as gambler’s fallacy – a mistaken notion that has claimed many victims through the ages.

How To Bet Big In Blackjack

The plain and simple truth is that no betting system on its own can help you beat the house, but some can help you improve your odds even more when combined with other blackjack strategies. For example, when using card counting and basic strategy, you can allow yourself to increase the bet amount when the count is high, as then the strategy cards are considered to be ‘more correct’ and your chances at winning are higher. But, as we already said, this can only work if you’re playing live dealer games. The best betting strategy for RNG games, on the other hand, is to simply bet the same amount over and over again while wagering some convenient casino bonus – a topic that we’re going to discuss a little bit further down the page.

Tip #5: Test in Demo Mode

Now that you have a complete overview of an all-encompassing online blackjack strategy, you probably feel ready to finally start playing. But before you go and bet real money, it’s highly recommended that you first test your skills with play money. Going back to our example with Blackjack Pro by Playtech, we’ve prepared a demo version of the game below that you can try for free. Don’t forget to use the strategy card that we presented to you to secure yourself the best odds.

Something else that you can do while playing in demo mode is to practice your card-counting skills, even though in all RNG games the shoe is virtually shuffled after each hand. After all, there are no demo versions of live blackjack, so your only option is to practice on their computerised versions.

Tip #6: Sync Your Bonus and Blackjack Strategies

Some of the biggest advantages of playing on the Internet vs playing at land-based casinos are undoubtedly the generous bonus opportunities that online casinos offer. Even if the casino has a slight advantage in any given game, playing with extra money that isn’t actually yours and being allowed to keep the winnings surely gives the players some edge. When it comes to blackjack, combining the already low house edge of the game with a solid math-based strategy and a suitable bonus is the most certain way to beat the casino. Of course, every bonus comes with its terms and conditions that are sometimes favourable but other times – not so much.

First of all, there’s always a wagering requirement that you have to fulfil before you can withdraw the winnings generated from the bonus. This requirement in most cases is set at 20 to 40 times the bonus plus the deposit amount. Furthermore, it’s important to take into account the fact that blackjack games don’t contribute at 100% toward the wagering requirement due to the fact that they have a pretty low house edge and give the players great winning odds. Usually, the wagering contribution for the game is set anywhere between 5% and 10%, the higher it is, of course, the better. Other important details you should take into account are the validity period of the bonus and the minimum deposit required to claim it.

All that said, let us present to you an easy-to-claim bonus that is perfect for beginners and offered by a casino that has a great array of blackjack games with both classic and innovative variants – Ladbrokes. At the moment, they offer a 100% bonus up to £500 to all new players that make minimum deposit of £20 at the casino – a pretty sweet deal, if you ask me. If you agree with me and are ready to start playing for real money, then click the link below and you’ll be safely redirected to the official website of the operator:

Sure enough, this is not the only available bonus offer that is suitable for playing blackjack online, in fact, most UK casino sites give you the opportunity to wager bonus money on all their blackjack games. So, if you want to find more great opportunities to play blackjack with bonus money, then make sure you also check out our dedicated bonus page.

How To Know When To Bet Big In Blackjack Winnings

Final Thoughts and Advice for Long-Term Success

In conclusion, the best blackjack strategy you can adopt is the one that fully corresponds to the game variation you’ve chosen to play. Be careful to only use a game plan that has been created for the particular type of blackjack you’re playing. Otherwise, you won’t be able to achieve the results you expect.

Beginners, find yourselves a strategy card for the variation you play and stick with it. Combine it with a good bonus and you can expect a moderate return in the long run. Your number one priority should be to practice and learn. The more experienced players can, on the other hand, test their card counting skills against some unsuspecting dealer at a live casino of their choice – remember, you can see them, but they cannot see you! Furthermore, to make sure that you get the whole picture as to how to beat this game, you can also take a look at some game strategies analysed.

How To Know When To Bet Big In Blackjack Card Game

Last but not least, don’t forget to have fun! After all, it’s a game and its main purpose is to entertain you. Not getting too stressed about winning is a good tactic as it will help you keep a cool head and make better decisions while playing.

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